巴菲特1975年致股东信回顾了糟糕的一年,纺织业亏损后下半年好转,保险业遭受历史最差业绩,但银行业绩优异,整体净资产增长15%。
To the Stockholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:
致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东:
Last year, when discussing the prospects for 1975, we stated “the outlook for 1975 is not encouraging.” This forecast proved to be distressingly accurate. Our operating earnings for 1975 were $6,713,592, or $6.85 per share, producing a return on beginning shareholders’ equity of 7.6%. This is the lowest return on equity experienced since 1967. Furthermore, as explained later in this letter, a large segment of these earnings resulted from Federal income tax refunds which will not be available to assist performance in 1976.
去年,在讨论 1975 年前景时,我们曾表示“1975 年的前景并不令人鼓舞”。这一预测不幸言中。1975年我们的运营利润为 6,713,592 美元,合每股 6.85 美元,基于期初股东权益的回报率为 7.6%。这是自 1967 年以来最低的净资产回报率。此外,正如后文所述,这些盈利中的很大一部分来自联邦所得税退税,这部分收入在 1976 年将不复存在。
On balance, however, current trends indicate a somewhat brighter 1976. Operations and prospects will be discussed in greater detail below, under specific industry titles. Our expectation is that significantly better results in textiles, earnings added from recent acquisitions, an increase in equity in earnings of Blue Chip Stamps resulting from an enlarged ownership interest, and at least a moderate improvement in insurance underwriting results will more than offset other possible negatives to produce greater earnings in 1976. The major variable—and by far the most difficult to predict with any feeling of confidence—is the insurance underwriting result. Present very tentative indications are that underwriting improvement is in prospect. If such improvement is moderate, our overall gain in earnings in 1976 likewise will prove moderate. More significant underwriting improvement could give us a major gain in earnings.
总体来看,当前趋势预示 1976 年会略有好转。各业务板块的经营和前景将在下文按行业标题详细讨论。我们预期,纺织业务显著好转、近期收购带来的利润增加、因持股比例提高而导致蓝筹印花公司股权盈利增加,以及保险承保业绩至少温和改善,这些利好将足以抵消其他可能的负面因素,使 1976 年利润增长。最大的变数——也是最难以充满信心预测的——是保险承保结果。目前非常初步的迹象显示,承保改善有望实现。如果改善幅度温和,我们 1976 年的总体利润增长也将温和。若承保改善更为显著,则可能带来可观收益增长。
Textile Operations
纺织业务
During the first half of 1975 sales of textile products were extremely depressed, resulting in major production curtailments. Operations ran at a significant loss, with employment down as much as 53% from a year earlier.
1975 年上半年,纺织品销售极其低迷,导致大幅减产。运营出现严重亏损,员工数量比一年前减少了多达 53%。
In contrast with previous cyclical slumps, however, most textile producers quickly reduced production to match incoming orders, thus preventing massive industry-wide accumulation of inventories. Such cutbacks caused quite prompt reflection at the mill operating level when demand revived at retail. As a result, beginning about midyear business rebounded at a fairly rapid rate. This “V” shaped textile depression, while one of the sharpest on record, also became one of the shortest ones in our experience. The fourth quarter produced an excellent profit for our textile division, bringing results for the year into the black.
然而,与以往周期性衰退不同,大多数纺织生产商迅速缩减产量以匹配订单,从而避免了全行业库存的大量积压。这种减产使得零售端需求复苏时,工厂层面的生产迅速回升。因此,年中左右业务开始以较快速度反弹。这场“V 形”的纺织衰退,虽然是有史以来最猛烈的一次,但也成为我们经历中最短暂的一次。第四季度,纺织部门取得了出色利润,使全年业绩扭亏为盈。
On April 28, 1975 we acquired Waumbec Mills Incorporated and Waumbec Dyeing and Finishing Co., Inc. located in Manchester, New Hampshire. These companies have long sold woven goods into the drapery and apparel trade. Such drapery materials complement and extend the line already marketed through the Home Fabrics Division of Berkshire Hathaway. In the period prior to our acquisition, the company had run at a very substantial loss, with only about 55% of looms in operation and the finishing plant operating at about 50% of capacity. Losses continued on a reduced basis for a few months after acquisition. Outstanding efforts by our manufacturing, administrative and sales people now have produced major improvements, which, coupled with the general revival in textiles, have moved Waumbec into a significant profit position.
1975 年 4 月 28 日,我们收购了位于新罕布什尔州曼彻斯特的 Waumbec Mills 公司和 Waumbec Dyeing and Finishing 公司。这两家公司长期向窗帘和服装贸易销售机织面料。这些窗帘材料补充并扩展了伯克希尔·哈撒韦家居织物部门已有的产品线。在我们收购之前,该公司经营严重亏损,只有约 55% 的织机在运转,后整理工厂的开工率约为 50%。收购后的几个月里,亏损仍在继续,但程度有所减轻。如今,我们的生产、行政和销售团队凭借卓越努力,已带来重大改善,再加上纺织业的整体复苏,Waumbec 已扭亏为盈。
We expect a good level of profits from textiles in 1976. Continued progress is being made in the movement of Waumbec goods into areas of traditional marketing strength of Berkshire Hathaway, productivity should improve in both the weaving and finishing areas at Manchester, and textile demand continues to firm at decent prices.
我们预计 1976 年纺织业务将实现良好利润。在将 Waumbec 产品推向伯克希尔·哈撒韦传统营销优势领域方面,持续取得进展;曼彻斯特的织造和后整理部门生产率有望提高;纺织需求继续稳定在合理价格水平。
We have great confidence in the ability of Ken Chace and his team to maximize our strengths in textiles. Therefore, we continue to look for ways to increase further our scale of operations while avoiding major capital investment in new fixed assets which we consider unwise, considering the relatively low returns historically earned on large scale investment in new textile equipment.
我们充分相信 Ken Chace 及其团队有能力最大化我们在纺织领域的优势。因此,我们将继续寻求扩大经营规模的方法,同时避免在新固定资产上进行大规模资本投资——鉴于历史上对新型纺织设备的大规模投资回报相对较低,我们认为这是不明智的。
Insurance Underwriting
保险承保
The property and casualty insurance industry had its worst year in history during 1975. We did our share—unfortunately, even somewhat more. Really disastrous results were concentrated in auto and long-tail (contracts where settlement of loss usually occurs long after the loss event) lines.
1975 年,财产及意外险行业经历了历史上最糟糕的一年。我们也“贡献”了自己的一份力量——不幸的是,甚至更多。真正灾难性的结果集中在车险和长尾业务(即损失事件发生后很久才进行理赔的合同)上。
Economic inflation, with the increase in cost of repairing humans and property far outstripping the general rate of inflation, produced ultimate loss costs which soared beyond premium levels established in a different cost environment. “Social” inflation caused the liability concept to be expanded continuously, far beyond limits contemplated when rates were established—in effect, adding coverage beyond what was paid for. Such social inflation increased significantly both the propensity to sue and the possibility of collecting mammoth jury awards for events not previously considered statistically significant in the establishment of rates. Furthermore, losses to policyholders which otherwise would result from mushrooming insolvencies of companies inadequately reacting to these problems are divided through Guaranty Funds among remaining solvent insurers. These trends will continue, and should moderate any optimism which otherwise might be justified by the sharply increased rates now taking effect.
经济通胀导致人员和财产修复成本的上升远超整体通胀率,使得最终损失成本飙升至远高于在以往成本环境下确定的保费水平。“社会”通胀导致责任概念不断扩展,远远超出费率制定时所设想的范围——实际上增加了超出所付费率的保障。这种社会通胀显著增加了诉讼倾向,以及就以往在费率制定中被认为不具有统计意义的事件获得巨额陪审团裁决的可能性。此外,对于那些未能妥善应对这些问题的公司破产狂潮,本应由保单持有人承担的损失通过保证基金分摊给了其他尚存的偿付能力充足的保险公司。这些趋势将持续下去,并应缓和因当前费率大幅提高而可能产生的乐观情绪。
Berkshire Hathaway’s insurance subsidiaries have a disproportionate concentration of business in precisely the lines which produced the worst underwriting results in 1975. Such lines produce unusually high investment income and, therefore, have been particularly attractive to us under previous underwriting conditions. However, our “mix” has been very disadvantageous during the past two years and it well may be that we will remain positioned in the more difficult part of the insurance spectrum during the inflationary years ahead.
伯克希尔·哈撒韦的保险子公司恰恰在那些 1975 年承保结果最差的险种上有着不成比例的业务集中。这些险种能产生异常高的投资收益,因此在以往的承保条件下对我们特别有吸引力。然而,过去两年这种“业务组合”对我们非常不利,而且在未来的通胀岁月里,我们很可能仍将处于保险领域中比较困难的那一端。
The only segment to show improved results for us during 1975 was the “home state” operation, which has made continuous progress under the leadership of John Ringwalt. Although still operating at a significant underwriting loss, the combined ratio improved from 1974. Adjusted for excess costs attributable to operations still in the start-up phase, underwriting results are satisfactory. Texas United Insurance Company, a major problem a few years ago, has made outstanding progress since George Billing has assumed command. With an almost totally new agency force, Texas United was the winner of the “Chairman’s Cup” for achievement of the lowest loss ratio among the home state companies. Cornhusker Casualty Company, oldest and largest of the home state companies, continues its outstanding operation with major gains in premium volume and a combined ratio slightly under 100. Substantial premium growth is expected at the home state operation during 1976; the measurement of success, however, will continue to be the achievement of a low combined ratio.
1975 年,我们旗下唯一业绩改善的板块是“本州”业务,在 John Ringwalt 的领导下,该业务不断取得进步。尽管仍面临可观的承保亏损,但综合比率较 1974 年有所改善。剔除仍处于起步阶段的业务所产生的超额成本后,承保结果令人满意。德州联合保险公司几年前曾是一个大问题,自 George Billing 接手以来取得了显著进展。凭借几乎全新的代理人队伍,德州联合荣获“主席杯”,以表彰其在本州公司中实现最低损失比率的成就。Cornhusker 意外险公司是本州公司中历史最悠久、规模最大的,继续表现出色,保费收入大幅增长,综合比率略低于 100。预计 1976 年本州业务将实现可观的保费增长;然而,衡量成功与否的标准仍将是实现较低的合成本率。
Our traditional business at National Indemnity Company, representing well over half of our insurance volume, had an extraordinarily bad underwriting year in 1975. Although rates were increased frequently and significantly, they continually lagged loss experience throughout the year. Several special programs instituted in the early 1970s have caused significant losses, as well as a heavy drain on managerial time and energies. Present indications are that premium volume will show a major increase in 1976, and we hope that underwriting results will improve.
我们的传统业务——国民赔偿公司,其保费收入占我们保险总量的一半以上,在 1975 年经历了异常糟糕的承保年份。尽管费率频繁且大幅上调,但全年始终滞后于损失经验。20 世纪 70 年代初启动的几项特殊计划造成了重大损失,并大量耗费了管理时间和精力。目前迹象表明,1976 年保费收入将大幅增长,我们希望承保结果会有所改善。
Reinsurance suffered the same problems as our direct business during 1975. The same remedial efforts were attempted. Because reinsurance contract settlements lag those of direct business, it well may be that any upturn in results from our direct insurance business will precede those of the reinsurance segment.
再保险业务在 1975 年遭遇了与直接业务相同的问题,我们也采取了相同的补救措施。由于再保险合同结算滞后于直接业务,直接保险业务的任何好转很可能领先于再保险板块。
At our Home and Automobile Insurance Company subsidiary, now writing auto business only in the Cook County area of Illinois, experience continued very bad in 1975 resulting in a management change in October. John Seward was made President at that time, and has energetically and imaginatively implemented a completely revamped underwriting approach.
我们的家庭与汽车保险公司子公司目前仅在伊利诺伊州库克县地区承保汽车险,1975 年业绩持续糟糕,导致 10 月份管理层发生变动。当时 John Seward 被任命为总裁,他积极且富有想象力地推行了全面革新的承保方法。
Overall, our insurance operation will produce a substantial gain in premium volume during 1976. Much of this will reflect increased rates rather than more policies. Under normal circumstances such a gain in volume would be welcome, but our emotions are mixed at present. Underwriting experience should improve—and we expect it to—but our confidence level is not high. While our efforts will be devoted to obtaining a combined ratio below 100, it is unlikely to be attained during 1976.
总体而言,1976 年我们的保险业务保费收入将大幅增长。这主要反映的是费率提高而非保单数量增加。正常情况下,这样的增长是受欢迎的,但目前我们的心情比较复杂。承保经验应该会改善——我们也期望如此——但我们的信心水平不高。虽然我们将努力使综合比率低于 100,但 1976 年可能难以实现。
Insurance Investments
保险投资
Gains in investment income were moderate during 1975 because premium volume remained flat and underwriting losses reduced funds available for investment. Invested assets, measured at cost at yearend, were close to identical with the level at the beginning of the year.
1975 年投资收益温和增长,因为保费收入持平且承保亏损减少了可用于投资的资金。按年末成本计量的投资资产与年初水平几乎相同。
At the end of 1974 the net unrealized loss in the stock section of our portfolio amounted to about $17 million, but we expressed the opinion, nevertheless, that this portfolio overall represented good value at its carrying value of cost. During 1975 a net capital loss of $2,888,000 before tax credits was realized, but our present expectation is that 1976 will be a year of realized capital gain. On March 31, 1976 our net unrealized gains applicable to equities amounted to about $15 million. Our equity investments are heavily concentrated in a few companies which are selected based on favorable economic characteristics, competent and honest management, and a purchase price attractive when measured against the yardstick of value to a private owner.
1974 年底,我们投资组合中股票部分的未实现净亏损约为 1700 万美元,但我们当时仍认为,从成本计量的账面价值看,该组合整体具有良好价值。1975 年,我们实现了 2,888,000 美元的税前净资本损失,但目前预期 1976 年将实现资本收益。1976 年 3 月 31 日,我们股票投资适用的未实现净收益约为 1500 万美元。我们的股票投资高度集中于少数几家公司,这些公司是根据良好的经济特征、称职且诚实的管理层,以及以相对于私人所有者的价值标准衡量具有吸引力的购买价格筛选而出的。
When such criteria are maintained, our intention is to hold for a long time; indeed, our largest equity investment is 467,150 shares of Washington Post “B” stock with a cost of $10.6 million, which we expect to hold permanently.
只要这些标准得以维持,我们就打算长期持有;事实上,我们最大的股权投资是 467,150 股《华盛顿邮报》B 股,成本为 1060 万美元,我们预计将永久持有。
With this approach, stock market fluctuations are of little importance to us—except as they may provide buying opportunities—but business performance is of major importance. On this score we have been delighted with progress made by practically all of the companies in which we now have significant investments.
采用这种方法,股市波动对我们来说无关紧要——除非它能提供购买机会——但企业表现至关重要。在这方面,我们几乎对所有现在持有重仓的公司所取得的进展感到欣喜。
We have continued to maintain a strong liquid position in our insurance companies. In last year’s annual report we explained how variations of 1/10 of 1% in interest rates result in million dollar swings in market value of our bonds. We consider such market fluctuation of minor importance as our liquidity and general financial strength make it highly improbable that bonds will have to be sold at times other than those of our choice.
我们继续保持保险子公司强大的流动性头寸。在上年度的报告中我们解释过,利率变动千分之一就会导致我们债券市场价值数百万美元的波动。我们认为这种市场波动无关紧要,因为我们的流动性和整体财务实力使得我们极不可能在非自愿选择的时间被迫出售债券。
Banking
银行业务
It is difficult to find adjectives to describe the performance of Eugene Abegg, Chief Executive of Illinois National Bank and Trust of Rockford, Illinois, our banking subsidiary.
对于我们的银行子公司——伊利诺伊州罗克福德市伊利诺伊国民银行及信托公司的首席执行官 Eugene Abegg,很难找到合适的形容词来描述他的业绩。
In a year when many banking operations experienced major troubles, Illinois National continued its outstanding record. Against average loans of about $65 million, net loan losses were $24,000, or .04%. Unusually high liquidity is maintained with obligations of the U. S. Government and its agencies, all due within one year, at yearend amounting to about 75% of demand deposits. Maximum rates of interest are paid on all consumer savings instruments which make up more than $2 million, it consistently has generated favorable earnings. Positioned as we now are with respect to income taxes, the addition of a solid source of taxable income is particularly welcome.
在许多银行机构遭遇重大困境的一年里,伊利诺伊国民银行继续保持卓越记录。在平均约 6500 万美元的贷款中,净贷款损失仅为 24,000 美元,即 0.04%。该行维持着异常高的流动性,年末持有的美国政府和机构证券均在一年内到期,总额约占活期存款的 75%。对所有超过 200 万美元的消费者储蓄工具均支付最高利率,它持续产生良好的盈利。鉴于我们目前所处的所得税状况,增加这样一个可靠应税收入来源尤其令人欢迎。
General Review
总览
Your present management assumed responsibility at Berkshire Hathaway in May, 1965. At the end of the prior fiscal year (September, 1964) the net worth of the Company was $22.1 million, and 1,137,778 common shares were outstanding, with a resulting book value of $19.46 per share. Ten years earlier, Berkshire Hathaway’s net worth had been $53.4 million. Dividends and stock repurchases accounted for over $21 million of the decline in company net worth, but aggregate net losses of $9.8 million had been incurred on sales of $595 million during the decade.
现任管理层于 1965 年 5 月接掌伯克希尔·哈撒韦。在之前一个财年结束时(1964 年 9 月),公司净资产为 2,210 万美元,发行在外普通股 1,137,778 股,每股账面价值 19.46 美元。十年前,伯克希尔·哈撒韦的净资产为 5,340 万美元。股息和股票回购导致公司净资产下降超过 2,100 万美元,但在这十年间,5.95 亿美元的销售额累计产生了 980 万美元的净亏损。
In 1965, two New England textile mills were the company’s only sources of earning power and, before Ken Chace assumed responsibility for the operation, textile earnings had been erratic and, cumulatively, something less than zero subsequent to the merger of Berkshire Fine Spinning and Hathaway Manufacturing. Since 1964, net worth has been built to $92.9 million, or $94.92 per share. We have acquired total, or virtually total ownership of six businesses through negotiated purchases for cash (or cash and notes) from private owners, started four others, purchased a 31.5% interest in a large affiliate enterprise and reduced the number of outstanding shares of Berkshire Hathaway to 979,569. Overall, equity per share has compounded at an annual rate of slightly over 15%.
1965 年时,两家新英格兰纺织厂是公司唯一的盈利来源,在 Ken Chace 接手运营之前,纺织收益一直不稳定,而且自伯克希尔精细纺纱与哈撒韦制造合并以来,累计盈利低于零。自 1964 年以来,净资产已增至 9,290 万美元,合每股 94.92 美元。我们通过向私人所有者协议购买现金(或现金加票据)的方式,获得了六家企业的全部或几乎全部所有权,创办了另外四个,购入了一家大型关联企业 31.5% 的权益,并将伯克希尔·哈撒韦的发行在外股份减少至 979,569 股。总体而言,每股权益以略高于 15% 的年复合率增长。
While 1975 was a major disappointment, efforts will continue to develop growing and diversified sources of earnings. Our objective is a conservatively financed and highly liquid business—possessing extra margins of balance sheet strength consistent with the fiduciary obligations inherent in the banking and insurance industries—which will produce a long term rate of return on equity capital exceeding that of American industry as a whole.
尽管 1975 年令人大失所望,我们将继续努力发展不断增长且多元化的盈利来源。我们的目标是打造一家财务保守、流动性极强的企业——拥有与银行及保险行业固有的受托义务相称的额外资产负债表稳健性——使其长期股权资本回报率超过美国企业整体水平。
Warren E. Buffett, Chairman
沃伦·E·巴菲特,董事长