1969年5月29日致合伙人信

BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP. LTD.
610 KIEWIT PLAZA
OMAHA, NEBRASKA 68131
TELEPHONE 042-4110

巴菲特合伙有限公司
基威特广场610号
内布拉斯加州奥马哈68131
电话：042-4110

May 29th, 1969

1969年5月29日

To My Partners:

致各位合伙人：

About eighteen months ago I wrote to you regarding changed environmental and personal factors causing me to modify our future performance objectives.

大约十八个月前，我曾致信各位，谈到环境和个人因素的变化，这些变化促使我调整了我们未来的业绩目标。

The investing environment I discussed at that time (and on which I have commented in various other letters) has generally become more negative and frustrating as time has passed. Maybe I am merely suffering from a lack of mental flexibility. (One observer commenting on security analysts over forty stated: “They know too many things that are no longer true.”)

我在当时讨论的投资环境（以及在多封其他信件中评论过的），随着时间的推移，总体上变得更加消极和令人沮丧。也许我只是缺乏思维的灵活性。（一位评论年过四十的证券分析师的人曾说过：“他们知道太多已经不再正确的事情。”）

However, it seems to me that: (1) opportunities for investment that are open to the analyst who stresses quantitative factors have virtually disappeared, after rather steadily drying up over the past twenty years; (2) our $100 million of assets further eliminates a large portion of this seemingly barren investment world, since commitments of less than about $3 million cannot have a real impact on our overall performance, and this virtually rules out companies with less than about $100 million of common stock at market value; and (3) a swelling interest in investment performance has created an increasingly short-term oriented and (in my opinion) more speculative market.

然而，在我看来：（1）对于注重定量因素的分析师来说，可以获得的投资机会在过去二十年中逐渐枯竭，如今几乎已消失殆尽；（2）我们1亿美元的资产规模，进一步排除了这个看似贫瘠的投资世界中的一大部分，因为低于约300万美元的投资对我们的整体业绩无法产生实质影响，这实际上就排除了普通股市值低于约1亿美元的公司；（3）对投资业绩日益高涨的关注，催生了一个越来越短期导向、且（在我看来）更具投机性的市场。

The October 9th, 1967 letter stated that personal considerations were the most important factor among those causing me to modify our objectives. I expressed a desire to be relieved of the (self-imposed) necessity of focusing 100% on BPL. I have flunked this test completely during the last eighteen months. The letter said: I hope limited objectives will make for more limited effort. It hasn't worked out that way. As long as I am “on stage”, publishing a regular record and assuming responsibility for management of what amounts to virtually 100% of the net worth of many partners, I will never be able to put sustained effort into any non-BPL activity. If I am going to participate publicly. I can't help being competitive. I know I don't want to be totally occupied with out-pacing an investment rabbit all my life. The only way to slow down is to stop.

1967年10月9日的信中提到，个人因素是我调整目标的最重要因素。我表达了希望从（自我强加的）必须100%专注于巴菲特合伙公司（BPL）的要求中解脱出来的愿望。但在过去的十八个月里，我完全没通过这一考验。信中说：‘我希望有限的目标会带来有限的努力。’但结果并非如此。只要我还‘身居台前’，定期发布业绩记录，并对相当于许多合伙人几乎全部身家的资金承担管理责任，我就永远无法将持久的努力投入到任何非BPL的活动中去。如果我公开参与，我就难免会有好胜心。我知道自己不想一辈子都忙于超越一只‘投资兔子’。唯一的减速办法就是停下来。

Therefore, before yearend. I intend to give all limited partners the required formal notice of my intention to retire. There are, of course, a number of tax and legal problems in connection with liquidating the Partnership, but overall, I am concerned with working out a plan that attains the following objectives:

因此，在今年年底之前，我打算向所有有限合伙人发出所需的正式通知，表明我打算退休。当然，清算合伙公司涉及诸多税务和法律问题，但总的来说，我关心的是制定一项实现以下目标的计划：

The most important item is that I have an alternative regarding money management to suggest to the many partners who do not want to handle this themselves. Some partners of course, have alternatives of their own in which they have confidence and find quite acceptable. To the others, however, I will not hand over their money with a "good luck". I intend to suggest an alternative money manager to whom I will entrust funds of my relatives and others for whom I have lifetime financial responsibility. This manager has integrity and ability and will probably perform as well or better than I would in the future (although nowhere close to what he or I have achieved in the past). He will be available to any partner, so that no minimum size for accounts will cause any of you a problem. I intend, in the future, to keep in general touch with what he is doing, but only on an infrequent basis with any advice on my part largely limited to a negative type.

最重要的一点是，对于那些不想自己打理资金的合伙人，我将提供一个关于资金管理的备选方案。当然，有些合伙人有他们自己信赖且完全可接受的替代方案。但对于其他人，我不会只祝‘好运’就把钱交给他们。我打算推荐另一位资金管理人，我将把自己亲属以及其他我对他们负有终身财务责任的人的资产托付给他。这位管理人正直且有能力，未来可能会比我本人做得一样好甚至更好（尽管远不及他或我过去的成绩）。他将对任何合伙人开放，因此不会有账户最低金额的限制，也就不会给任何人带来困扰。我打算未来会大致关注他的操作，但只会是不定期地了解，而且我给出的建议基本上也只限于否定性意见。

I want all partners to have the option of receiving cash and possibly readily marketable securities (there will probably be only one where this will apply) where I like both the prospects and price but which partners will be able to freely convert to cash if they wish.

我希望所有合伙人都有权选择获得现金，以及可能是一些易于变现的证券（可能只有一种会采用这种方式），这些证券既是我看好其前景和价格的，又是合伙人可以根据意愿自由转换为现金的。

However, I also want all partners to have the option of maintaining their proportional interests in our two controlled companies (Diversified Retailing Company Inc. and Berkshire Hathaway Inc.) and one other small "restricted" holding. Because these securities will be valued unilaterally by me at fair value, I feel it is essential that, if you wish, you can maintain your proportionate interest at such valuation.

不过，我也希望所有合伙人都有权选择保留在我们两家控股公司（多元零售公司（Diversified Retailing Company Inc.）和伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway Inc.））以及另一小部分“受限”持股中的按比例权益。因为这些证券将由我单方面以公允价值估值，我认为至关重要的是，如果你们愿意，可以按该估值保留相应的权益比例。

However, these securities are not freely marketable (various SEC restrictions apply to “control” stock and non-registered stock) and they will probably be both non-transferable and non-income-producing for a considerable period of time. Therefore, I want you to be able to go either way in our liquidation - either stick with the restricted securities or take cash equivalent. I strongly like all of the people running our controlled businesses (joined now by the Illinois National Bank and Trust Company of Rockford, Illinois, a $100 million plus, extremely well-run bank, purchased by Berkshire Hathaway earlier this year), and want the relationship to be life long. I certainly have no desire to sell a good controlled business run by people I like and admire, merely to obtain a fancy price. However, specific conditions may cause the sale of one operating unit at some point.

然而，这些证券并非可自由流通（美国证券交易委员会的各种限制适用于“控制”股和非注册股票），并且可能在相当长的一段时间内既不能转让，也不能产生收益。因此，我希望你们在我们的清算中能够选择走任何一条路——要么保留受限证券，要么获取等值现金。我非常喜欢所有经营我们控股企业的人员（现在还包括伊利诺伊州罗克福德的伊利诺伊国家银行和信托公司（Illinois National Bank and Trust Company of Rockford, Illinois），这是一家资产超过1亿美元、经营极为出色的银行，由伯克希尔·哈撒韦于今年早些时候收购），并希望这种关系能持续一生。我当然不打算仅仅为了获得一个好价钱，就卖掉由我喜欢和钦佩的人经营的优质控股企业。不过，特定情况可能会导致在某个时点出售某个运营单位。

I believe we will have a liquidation program which will accomplish the above objectives. Our activities in this regard should cause no change in your tax planning for 1969.

我相信我们将制定出一个能够实现上述目标的清算方案。我们在这方面的行动，不会影响你们1969年的税务规划。

One final objective, I would like very much to achieve (but which just isn't going to happen) is to go out with a bang. I hate to end with a poor year, but we are going to have one in 1969. My best guess is that at yearend, allowing for a substantial increase in value of controlled companies (against which all partners except me will have the option of taking cash), we will show a breakeven result for 1969 before any monthly payments to partners. This will be true even if the market should advance substantially between now and yearend, since we will not be in any important position which will expose us to much upside potential.

最后一个我非常想实现（但偏偏就无法实现）的目标，是轰轰烈烈地收场。我讨厌以一个糟糕的年份结束，但我们1969年看来注定要如此了。我估计，到年底时，即便控股公司的价值大幅增长（除我之外的所有合伙人都可以选择领取现金而非股份），在支付给合伙人的月度分配之前，我们1969年的业绩将勉强持平。即便从现在到年底市场大幅上涨，情况也不会改变，因为我们没有持有任何能让我们充分享受上行潜力的重要仓位。

Our experience in workouts this year has been atrocious - during this period I have felt like the bird that inadvertently flew into the middle of a badminton game. We are not alone in such experience, but it came at a time when we were toward the upper limit of what has been our historical range of percentage commitment in this category.

今年我们在套利类（workouts）投资上的经历糟透了——在这段时间里，我感觉自己就像一只不小心飞进羽毛球比赛中的鸟儿。我们并非独自遭此经历，但这事发生在我们该类投资配置比例处于历史区间上沿的时候。

Documenting one's boners is unpleasant business. I find "selective reporting" even more distasteful. Our poor experience this year is 100% my fault. It did not reflect bad luck, but rather an improper assessment of a very fast-developing governmental trend. Paradoxically, I have long believed the government should have been doing (in terms of the problem attacked – not necessarily the means utilized) what it finally did - in other words, on an overall basis, I believe the general goal of the activity which has cost us substantial money is socially desirable and have so preached for some time. Nevertheless, I didn't think it would happen. I never believe in mixing what I think should happen (socially) with what I think will happen in making decisions - in this case, we would be some millions better off if I had.

记录自己的错误是件不愉快的事。我觉得“选择性汇报”更让人反感。我们今年糟糕的表现完全是我的错。这并非运气不好，而是我对一项快速发展中的政府趋势做出了错误判断。矛盾的是，我长期以来一直认为政府应该做（就其所针对的问题而言——不一定是所采用的手段）它最终做的事情——换句话说，总体而言，我认为这一让我们损失惨重的行动，其总体目标是社会所期望的，我也曾这么宣扬过一段时间。然而，我没想到它真的会发生。在做决策时，我从不认为应该把我认为（从社会角度）应该发生的事情与我认为将会发生的事情混为一谈——这次如果我做到了，我们本可以多出几百万美元。

Quite frankly, in spite of any factors set forth on the earlier pages. I would continue to operate the Partnership in 1970, or even 1971, if I had some really first class ideas. Not because I want to, but simply because I would so much rather end with a good year than a poor one. However. I just don't see anything available that gives any reasonable hope of delivering such a good year and I have no desire to grope around, hoping to "get lucky" with other people's money. I am not attuned to this market environment and I don't want to spoil a decent record by trying to play a game I don't understand just so I can go out a hero.

坦率地说，尽管前文列举了种种因素，但如果我有一些真正一流的投资想法，我仍会在1970年甚至1971年继续经营合伙公司。并不是因为我想这样做，而仅仅是因为我宁愿以一个好年份而不是坏年份结束。然而，我实在看不到任何有望带来这样一个好年份的机会，我也不想拿着别人的钱去四处摸索，指望“撞大运”。我不适应目前的市场环境，也不想为了体面退场，而去玩一个自己看不懂的游戏，从而毁掉一份体面的记录。

Therefore, we will be liquidating holdings throughout the year, working toward a residual of the controlled companies, the one "investment letter" security, the one marketable security with favorable long-term prospects, and the miscellaneous "stubs", etc. of small total value which will take several years to clean up in the Workout category.

因此，我们将在全年逐步清仓，最终剩下控股公司、一种“投资信”证券、一种长期前景良好的可流通证券，以及一些总价值不高、需要几年时间才能在套利类中清理完毕的零碎“残根”等。

I have written this letter a little early in lieu of the mid-year letter. Once I made a decision, I wanted you to know. I also wanted to be available in Omaha for a period after you received this letter to clear up anything that may be confusing in it. In July, I expect to be in California.

我提前一点写了这封信，以代替年中信。一旦我做了决定，我希望你们能知道。我也希望在你们收到这封信后，能有一段时间待在奥马哈，以便澄清信中可能让人困惑的地方。七月，我预计会在加利福尼亚。

Some of you are going to ask, "What do you plan to do?" I don't have an answer to that question. I do know that when I am 60, I should be attempting to achieve different personal goals than those which had priority at age 20. Therefore, unless I now divorce myself from the activity that has consumed virtually all of my time and energies during the first eighteen years of my adult life, I am unlikely to develop activities that will be appropriate to new circumstances in subsequent years.

有些人会问：“那你打算做什么？”我对此没有答案。但我确实知道，当我60岁时，我应该努力实现与20岁时优先追求的不同个人目标。因此，除非我现在就从这项自我成年以来头十八年里几乎耗尽我所有时间和精力的活动中抽身出来，否则我很难发展出适应今后新环境的活动。

We will have a letter out in the Fall, probably October, elaborating on the liquidation procedure, the investment advisor suggestion, etc…

我们会在秋季，大概十月份，再发一封信，详细说明清算程序、投资顾问建议等事宜……

Cordially,
Warren E. Buffett
WEB/glk

谨上，
沃伦·E·巴菲特
WEB/glk