1969年12月26日致合伙人信
巴菲特通报现金分配计划、税务估算、Blue Chip Stamps持股处置,并回答关于伯克希尔、多元化零售公司等常见问题。
BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP. LTD.
610 KIEWIT PLAZA
OMAHA, NEBRASKA 68131
TELEPHONE 042-4110
巴菲特合伙有限公司
基维特广场 610 号
内布拉斯加州奥马哈 68131
电话 042-4110
December 26, 1969
1969 年 12 月 26 日
To My Partners:
致各位合伙人:
Our plans regarding the initial cash distribution have been finalized and we expect to mail to you on January 3rd a check dated January 5th, 1970 for approximately 64% of your January 1st. 1969 capital, less any distributions made to you (including monthly payments) since January 1st. 1969. If you have taken no monthly payments during 1969, there will be a small interest adjustment in your favor; if you have had loans from BPL, there will be an interest charge. I couldn't be more delighted about the action of the bond and stock markets from the standpoint of the timing of our liquidation. I believe practically all partners - whether they would have invested in bonds or stocks - will be far better off receiving the cash now than if we had liquidated at the end of last year. Those seeking income will receive about 40% more after tax on the same principal investment than they would have achieved only a year ago at what then seemed like generous yields.
我们关于首次现金分配的计划已经敲定,预计将于 1 月 3 日向您寄出日期为 1970 年 1 月 5 日的支票,金额约为您 1969 年 1 月 1 日资本的 64%,减去自 1969 年 1 月 1 日以来向您分配的任何款项(包括月度付款)。如果您在 1969 年未曾领取月度付款,将会有小额利息调整有利于您;如果您从 BPL 获得过贷款,则会收取利息。从我们清盘的时机来看,债券和股票市场的表现让我再高兴不过了。我相信,几乎所有合伙人——无论他们原本会投资债券还是股票——现在拿到现金的状况都会比我们在去年年底清算时好得多。寻求收益的合伙人,在相同本金投资基础上,税后收入将比仅仅一年前在看似丰厚收益率下所能获得的水平高出约 40%。
Our tax picture is virtually complete and it appears that you will have ordinary income (dividends plus interest income less ordinary loss) for Federal tax purposes of about 3 –3/4% of your January 1st. 1969 capital (item 1 in enclosed letter), no significant long-term capital gain or loss, and a short-term capital loss of about 8-1/2% of your January 1st, 1969 unrealized appreciation (item 3). These estimates are just rough approximations - definitive figures will reach you in early February.
我们的税务状况已基本明确,看来您在联邦税项上将会有普通所得(股息加利息收入减去普通亏损),约为您 1969 年 1 月 1 日资本的 3¾%(随函信件中的第 1 项),没有重大的长期资本利得或亏损,短期资本亏损约为您 1969 年 1 月 1 日未实现增值的 8½%(第 3 项)。这些估算只是粗略近似——确切的数字将在二月初寄达。
The sale of our 371,400 shares of Blue Chip Stamps was not completed in 1969. When the stock went into registration, it was selling at about $24 per share. The underwriters indicated a range where they expected to offer our shares (along with others) with heavy weight placed on a comparison with Sperry & Hutchinson. Shortly before the stock was to be offered, with the Dow-Jones Industrials much lower but S & H virtually unchanged, they indicated a price below their former range. We reluctantly agreed and felt we had a deal but, on the next business day, they stated that our agreed price was not feasible. We then withdrew and a much smaller offering was done.
我们持有的 371,400 股蓝筹邮票(Blue Chip Stamps)的出售未能在 1969 年内完成。该股进入注册时,交易价约为每股 24 美元。承销商给出了一个预期发行价区间,其中重点参考了斯佩里与哈钦森(Sperry & Hutchinson)的对比。即将发行前,道琼斯工业指数大幅下跌,但 S&H 几乎未变,承销商却报出了低于此前区间的价格。我们勉强同意,并以为已经说定,但在下一个工作日,他们又表示约定价格不可行。于是我们退出,随后进行了一个规模小得多的发行。
I intend to hold our block of Blue Chip Stamps in BPL for a more advantageous disposal or eventual distribution to our partners. The odds are decent that we will do better in this manner - even if it takes a year or two - than if we had participated in a very large sale into a somewhat distressed market. Unless there is a material change in the market in the next few days, I plan to value our Blue Chip holdings at yearend at the price received by selling shareholders on the public offering after underwriting discount and expenses.
我打算在 BPL 中继续持有我们的大宗蓝筹邮票,以寻求更有利的处置方式或最终分配给合伙人。即使需要一两年的时间,我们以此方式获得更好结果的可能性相当大——这比参与在一个相对疲弱的市场中进行大规模出售要好。除非接下来几天市场出现重大变化,我计划按公开发行中出售股东减除承销折扣和费用后所得的价格,对年末我们的蓝筹邮票持仓进行估值。
Various questions have been asked pursuant to the last letter:
针对上一封信,有人提出了几个问题:
- If we are not getting a good return on the textile business of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., why do we
- continue to operate it?
- 既然我们在伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的纺织业务上回报不佳,为什么还要继续经营?
Pretty much for the reasons outlined in my letter. I don't want to liquidate a business employing 1100 people when the Management has worked hard to improve their relative industry position, with reasonable results, and as long as the business does not require substantial additional capital investment. I have no desire to trade severe human dislocations for a few percentage points additional return per annum. Obviously, if we faced material compulsory additional investment or sustained operating losses, the decision might have to be different, but I don't anticipate such alternatives.
大体上就是我那封信里所列的理由。我不想清算一家雇用了 1100 人的企业,而且管理层努力改善了行业相对地位并取得了合理成果,只要这项业务不需要大量额外资本投资。我不愿意为了每年多几个百分点的回报而造成严重的人员流离失所。当然,如果我们面临重大的强制追加投资或持续的经营亏损,决策可能会不同,但我预计不会出现这些情况。
- How large is our investment in Sun Newspapers, etc., and do we intend to expand in the newspaper,
- radio and TV business?
- 我们在太阳报业(Sun Newspapers)等的投资有多大,我们是否打算在报纸、广播和电视领域扩张?
The combined investment in Sun, Blacker Printing and Gateway Underwriters is a little over $1 per share of Berkshire Hathaway, and earns something less than 10 cent per share. We have no particular plans to expand in the communication field.
我们在太阳报业、布莱克印刷(Blacker Printing)和盖特威保险代理(Gateway Underwriters)的合计投资,略高于伯克希尔·哈撒韦每股 1 美元,每股盈利不到 10 美分。我们没有在通信领域扩张的具体计划。
- What does Gateway Underwriters do?
- 盖特威保险代理公司(Gateway Underwriters)做什么业务?
Gateway Underwriters serves primarily as a General Agent for National Indemnity Company in the State of Missouri.
盖特威保险代理主要是国民赔偿公司(National Indemnity Company)在密苏里州的总代理。
- Are there good "second men" to take over from the men running the three excellent operating
- businesses?
- 我们那三项优秀运营业务的管理者们有没有好的“二把手”可以接班?
In any company where the founder and chief driving force behind the enterprise is still active, it is very difficult to evaluate "second men". The only real way to see how someone is going to do when running a company is to let him run it. Some of our businesses have certainly been more "one-man shows" than the typical corporation. Subject to the foregoing caveat, I think that we do have some good “second men” coming along.
在任何创始人兼主要推动者仍活跃的企业里,评估“二把手”都极其困难。要真正知道一个人经营一家公司会干得怎样,唯一的方法就是让他去经营。我们的有些业务显然比典型的公司更依赖“个人秀”。在上述提醒的前提下,我认为我们确实有一些不错的“二把手”在成长。
- In what area do you plan to invest the cash in Diversified Retailing Company and do you intend to stick
- primarily to the retailing field?
- 您计划将多元化零售公司(Diversified Retailing Company)的现金投资在哪些领域,是否主要坚持零售业?
While we prefer the retailing field, we do not preclude anything that will make sense. We have been looking without success for two years for an intelligent acquisition for DRC, so we are not about to rule out any industry, if the business looks good. Pending such time as we find one or more operating businesses to buy, the money will be invested in marketable securities.
虽然我们偏好零售领域,但也不排斥任何有道理的事情。我们为 DRC 寻找明智的收购已经找了两年没有成功,因此只要业务看起来不错,我们不会排除任何行业。在找到一家或多家可购买的运营企业之前,资金将投资于可流通证券。
- Why didn't DRC payout the money it received on the sale of Hochschild, Kohn & Company?
- 为什么 DRC 不将出售霍克希尔德·科恩公司(Hochschild, Kohn & Company)所得资金分配出去?
In addition to the fact that such a payment would constitute a dividend, taxable in significant part as ordinary income, there are restrictions in the bond indenture which prevent such a pay-out without turning over control of the company to the bondholders.
除了这种支付将构成股息、大部分须按普通所得纳税这一事实外,债券契约中的限制条款也使得,若不将公司控制权移交给债券持有人,此类分配无法进行。
- Will distribution of the DRC stock cause the DRC debentures to be called?
- DRC 股票的分配是否会导致 DRC 债券被赎回?
After distribution of the stock, I will be the largest stockholder in DRC and, hence, the call provision will not apply.
股票分配后,我将成为 DRC 的最大股东,因此赎回条款将不适用。
- How would we know if the DRC debentures were called?
- 我们如何知道 DRC 债券是否被赎回?
All stockholders and debenture holders would find out directly from the company through regular or special reports that the company issues to its security holders. There is no intention at all of calling the debentures.
所有股东和债券持有人都会从公司定期或特别报告中直接获悉,公司会向证券持有人发布这些报告。完全没有赎回债券的打算。
- Why did you not register our Berkshire Hathaway and Diversified Retailing shares so that the stock,
- when received by the partners, would be freely marketable?
- 您为什么不将我们的伯克希尔·哈撒韦和多元化零售公司股票进行注册登记,以便合伙人收到后可以自由交易?
We considered this possibility but rejected it for both practical and legal considerations. I will just discuss the practicalities, since they would independently dictate the decision we made.
我们考虑过这种可能性,但出于实际和法律方面的考量,予以了否决。我只讨论实际层面,因为这些考量本身就足以决定我们的决策。
There is presently no existing market for Diversified Retailing, and our holdings of Berkshire Hathaway are probably four or five times the present floating supply of this stock. An attempt to quickly buy or sell a few thousand shares can easily move BH stock several points or more. We own 691,441 shares. Were we to distribute these stocks to you via a registration without an underwriting, and with the possibility that a substantial portion would be offered for sale by many sellers operating individually but virtually simultaneously, there is a real likelihood, particularly in a stock market environment such as we have seen recently, that the market for these two stocks would be little short of chaotic. It has not seemed to me that this was the kind of situation with which I should leave you, both from the standpoint of the price level which might prevail, as well as for the reason that different partners might well have to liquidate at widely varying price levels. The more sophisticated partners might have an important edge on the less sophisticated ones, and I believe many partner’s might have no chance to realize the prices I anticipate using for yearend valuation. This would rightly seem most unfair to you, since I would have received some allocation of 1969 BPL profits based upon these yearend valuations. If the markets were to become distressed, I would probably come in for criticism, whether I personally bought at lower prices or, perhaps more so, if I refrained from buying.
多元化零售公司目前没有现有市场,而我们持有的伯克希尔·哈撒韦股票数量可能是该股当前流通量的四到五倍。试图快速买入或卖出几千股,就很容易使 BH 股票波动几个点甚至更多。我们拥有 691,441 股。如果我们不通过承销直接以注册方式将这些股票分配给你们,而其中很大一部分可能会被众多投资者各自但几乎同时地卖出,那么极有可能——尤其是在我们近期所见的那种股市环境中——这两只股票的市场会几近混乱。我不认为我应该让你们面对这种局面,无论从可能出现的价格水平来看,还是因为不同合伙人可能在差异极大的价位上被迫变现。经验更丰富的合伙人可能比欠缺经验的合伙人拥有很大优势,而且我相信许多合伙人可能根本没有机会实现我预计的年末估值价格。这对你们来说显然极不公平,因为我会基于这些年末估值获取一部分 1969 年 BPL 利润。如果市场随后变得低迷,我很可能会受到指责,无论我是否以更低的价格买入,或者——也许更甚——如果我克制自己不买入。
Were we to attempt to sponsor an underwriting in connection with a registration for those partners who might wish to sell, there would be, in my opinion, the likelihood that the result would still be far less than satisfactory. We have just been around this track with our holdings of Blue Chip Stamps, where we watched the price of our stock go from 24 to 16-1/2 after announcement of the underwriting, of which we originally were to be a part. I did not want this sort of result for the partners with respect to their holdings of Berkshire and Diversified.
即使我们试图为那些希望卖出的合伙人通过注册和承销方式来操作,我认为结果仍可能远不及人意。我们持有的蓝筹邮票刚走过这条路:在宣布承销(我们最初是其中一部分)后,我们看着自己的股票价格从 24 跌到 16½。我不想让合伙人手中的伯克希尔和多元化零售持股也遭遇类似结果。
It is my belief that, by confining sales to private placements, those partners who wish to sell will realize more for their stock (with the sophisticated partners having no marketing edge on the less knowledgeable) than would be achieved, through an underwriting at this time. Also, the stock should be more likely to find its way into the hands of long-term investment-minded holders, which should mean less volatile markets in the future. We have had several phone calls from persons indicating that they wish to make private sales - we anticipate there will be no difficulty in effectuating such sales at prices related to our yearend valuations.
我相信,通过将出售局限在私募配售,愿意出售的合伙人将实现更高的价格(经验丰富的合伙人也无法在不懂行的合伙人面前获得营销优势),这比现在通过承销所能达到的效果要好。而且,股票也更有机会落入秉持长期投资理念的持有者手中,这应该意味着未来市场波动更小。我们已经接到几位表示希望进行私募出售的人的电话——我们预计,在接近我们年末估值的价位上完成此类出售并不困难。
Those partners who would prefer an underwritten distribution always have the option of having a registration of their own. I will be glad to facilitate this by placing all partners in touch with each other who indicate to me their desire to sell via a registered underwriting, at their expense and through an underwriter of their choice. In this way the expense of an underwriting, which can be considerable, would be borne by the selling partners and not by the partners as a whole.
那些偏好承销分配方式的合伙人,总可以自行搞一次注册登记。我很乐意从中协调,让所有向我表示希望通过注册承销方式出售的合伙人相互联系,费用由他们承担、承销商由他们选择。这样一来,金额不菲的承销费用将由出售的合伙人承担,而不是由全体合伙人共同承担。
I have also had partners ask if they could participate in a registered offering in the future if I should sell shares in this manner. I think it is almost certain I will never sell stock via public offering but, should it ever happen, I will be glad to let any of you participate in any underwritten offering in which I might be involved. In all probability, if it ever did happen, your stock would already be “free”, although mine would still be restricted. I cannot make the same commitment to you regarding any private sale I might make in the future, just as I can't expect you to restrict any sale options you might have in order to include me.
还有合伙人问,将来我若以公开方式出售股票,他们能否参与此等注册发行。我想我几乎永远不会通过公开发行出售股票,但万一发生,无论我参与何种承销发行,我都会乐意让任何合伙人参与其中。很可能,如果真有这么一天,你们的股票已经“自由流通”,而我的还处于受限状态。至于我将来可能进行的任何私募出售,我不能对你们做出同等承诺,正如我不能期望你们为了将我包括在内而限制自己的出售选择一样。
- Will you let us know if you sell your holdings of BH or DRC?
- 如果您出售持有的 BH 或 DRC 股份,会通知我们吗?
You would undoubtedly know from corporate communications, reports in the press and reports to Government agencies if I disposed of my holdings. I have no intention at all of doing so in the foreseeable future - I merely make no commitment not to. However, former BPL partners will have no priority over other BH or DRC security holders in obtaining information relating to their corporate activities.
如果我处置了持股,你们毫无疑问会从公司通告、新闻报道和向政府机构提交的报告中得知。我眼下没有任何这样做的打算——我只是不承诺一定不做。不过,前 BPL 合伙人在获取与 BH 或 DRC 公司活动相关的信息方面,并不比其它证券持有人享有优先权。
- Should I hold my BH or DRC stock?
- 我应该持有我的 BH 或 DRC 股票吗?
I can’t give you the answer on this one. All I can say is that I’m going to do so and I plan to buy more. I am very happy to have a material portion of my net worth invested in these companies on a long term basis. Obviously, I think they will be worth significantly more money five or ten years hence. Compared to most stocks, I think there is a low risk of loss. I hope their price patterns follow a rather moderate range related to business results rather than behaving in a volatile manner related to speculative enthusiasm or depression. Obviously, I cannot control the latter phenomena, but there is no intent to "promote" the stocks a la much of the distasteful general financial market activity of recent years.
我无法替你回答这个问题。我只能说我自己会持有,并计划买入更多。我很乐意将自己的相当一部分净资产长期投资于这些公司。显然,我认为它们在未来五到十年会值多得多的钱。与大多数股票相比,我认为损失风险很低。我希望它们的价格走势与业绩相关,在一个相对温和的区间内运行,而不是随着投机热情或悲观情绪大幅波动。自然,我无法控制后一种现象,但我无意像近年来许多令人反感的金融市场活动那样去“推销”这些股票。
- Can I give either BH or DRC shares to my wife or children?
- 我能否将 BH 或 DRC 股票赠予我的妻子或子女?
We are advised by counsel that this is permissible but, of course the same restrictions on transfer that applied to you would apply to the donee of the gift.
我们得到律师意见,这是允许的,但当然,适用于您的转让限制也同样适用于受赠人。
- Why are you waiting until March to give us your suggestions regarding bonds?
- 您为什么等到三月份才给我们债券方面的建议?
January and February promise to be very busy months. Many partners may want to talk to me about their questions and objectives regarding bonds. I want to have all important BPL matters out of the way before I talk with any of them on an individual basis. I make no forecasts regarding the bond market (or stock market) - it may be higher or lower in March than now. After my October letter, several partners became very eager to buy bonds immediately - to date they are much better off by waiting. The excellent quality tax-free bonds I talked about at that time with yields of 6 -1/2% can now be bought to yield about 7%.
一月和二月预计会非常忙碌。许多合伙人可能想与我探讨他们关于债券的问题和目标。我希望能先处理完所有重要的 BPL 事务,再与任何人进行单独交流。我对债券市场(或股票市场)不做预测——三月份时可能比现在高,也可能比现在低。在我十月份的信件之后,几位合伙人急切地想立即买入债券——迄今为止,等待让他们受益匪浅。我当时谈到的高品质免税债券,收益率在 6½%,现在可买到收益率约 7% 的。
Cordially,
谨上,
Warren E. Buffett
沃伦·E·巴菲特
WEB/glk
WEB/glk