1959年致合伙人信

The General Stock Market in 1959:

1959年总体股市表现：

The Dow-Jones Industrial Average, undoubtedly the most widely used index of stock market behavior, presented a somewhat faulty picture in 1959. This index recorded an advance from 583 to 679, or 16.4% for the year. When the dividends which would have been received through ownership of the average are added, an overall gain of 19.9% indicated for 1959.

道琼斯工业平均指数无疑是最广泛使用的股市行为指标，但在1959年呈现出有些失真的画面。该指数从583点上涨至679点，全年涨幅16.4%。若加上通过持有平均指数所能获得的股息，1959年的整体收益率约为19.9%。

Despite this indication of a robust market, more stocks declined than advanced on the New York Stock Exchange during the year by a margin of 710 to 628. Both the Dow-Jones Railroad Average and Utility Average registered declines.

尽管这显示了市场的强劲，但纽约证券交易所全年下跌股票数量超过上涨股票，比例为710比628。道琼斯铁路平均指数和公用事业平均指数均出现下跌。

Most investment trusts had a difficult time in comparison with the Industrial Average. Tri-Continental Corp., the nation's largest closed-end investment company (total asset $400 million) had an overall gain of about 5.7% for the year. Fred Brown, its President, had this to say about the 1959 marked in a recent speech to the Analysts Society:

大多数投资信托基金与工业平均指数相比表现艰难。美国最大的封闭式投资公司Tri-Continental Corp.（总资产4亿美元）全年整体收益率约为5.7%。其总裁弗雷德·布朗在最近一次对分析师协会的演讲中这样评价1959年的市场：

"But, even though we like the portfolio, the market performance of Tri-Continental's holdings in 1959 was disappointing to us. Markets in which investor sentiment and enthusiasm play so large a part as those of 1959, are difficult for investment managers trained in values and tuned to investing for the long-term. Perhaps we haven't had our space boots adjusted properly. However, we believe that there is a limit to risks that an investing institution such as Tri-Continental should take with its stockholders' money, and we believe that the portfolio is in shape for the year ahead."

“但是，尽管我们喜欢这个投资组合，Tri-Continental在1959年的持仓市场表现却令我们失望。对于像1959年这样、投资者情绪和热情发挥如此巨大作用的市场，对于那些以价值为导向、着眼长期投资的投资经理来说，是难以应对的。也许我们还没有把‘太空靴’调整好。然而，我们相信像Tri-Continental这样的投资机构，在运用股东资金时所承担的风险是有限度的，并且我们认为我们的投资组合已经为来年做好准备。”

Massachusetts Investors Trust, the country's largest mutual fund with assets of $1.5 billion showed an overall gain of about 9% for the year.

美国最大的共同基金——马萨诸塞投资者信托（资产15亿美元）全年整体收益率约为9%。

Most of you know I have been very apprehensive about general stock market levels for several years. To date, this caution has been unnecessary. By previous standards, the present level of "blue chip" security prices contains a substantial speculative component with a corresponding risk of loss. Perhaps other standards of valuation are evolving which will permanently replace the old standard. I don't think so. I may very well be wrong; however, I would rather sustain the penalties resulting from over-conservatism than face the consequences of error, perhaps with permanent capital loss, resulting from the adoption of a "New Era" philosophy where trees really do grow to the sky.

你们大多知道，几年来我一直对大盘水平颇为担忧。迄今为止，这种谨慎并不必要。按照以往的标准，当前“蓝筹”证券价格含有相当大的投机成分，相应地存在亏损风险。也许新的估值标准正在演变，并将永久取代旧标准。我认为不会这样。我很可能错了；但我宁愿承受因过度保守而带来的惩罚，也不愿因信奉“新时代”理念——即树真的能长到天上去——而可能犯下导致永久性资本损失的错误。

Results in 1959:

1959年业绩：

There has been emphasis in previous letters on a suggested standard of performance involving relatively good results (compared to the general market indices and leading investment trusts) in periods of declining or level prices but relatively unimpressive results in rapidly rising markets.

在以往的信中，我们强调了一个建议的业绩衡量标准：在市场下跌或横盘时期，取得相对较好（与大盘指数和主要投资信托相比）的业绩；但在市场快速上涨时期，业绩可能相对平淡。

We were fortunate to achieve reasonably good results in 1959. The six partnerships that operated throughout the year achieved overall net gains ranging from 22.3% to 30.0%, and averaging about 25.9%. Portfolios of these partnerships are now about 80% comparable, but there is some difference due to securities and cash becoming available at varying times, payments made to partners, etc. Over the past few years, there hasn't been any partnership which has consistently been at the top or bottom of performance from year to year, and the variance is narrowing as the portfolios tend to become comparable.

我们很幸运在1959年取得了不错的业绩。全年运营的六个合伙基金实现了22.3%至30.0%不等的整体净收益率，平均约25.9%。这些合伙基金的投资组合现在约有80%是可比的，但由于证券和现金的获取时间不同、向合伙人支付的款项等因素，仍存在一些差异。在过去几年里，没有一个合伙基金能持续位于业绩的顶部或底部，随着投资组合日益趋同，差异正在缩小。

The overall net gain is determined on the basis of market values at the beginning and end of the year adjusted for payments made to partners or contributions received from them. It is not based on actual realized profits during the year, but is intended to measure the change in liquidating value for the year. It is before interest allowed to partners (where that is specified in the partnership agreement) and before any division of profit to the general partner, but after operating expenses.

整体净收益是根据年初和年末的市场价值，并调整合伙人取款或追加投资后计算得出的。它并非基于当年实际实现的利润，而是旨在衡量当年清算价值的变化。该数字未扣除支付给合伙人的利息（若合伙协议中有规定），也未扣除普通合伙人的利润分成，但已扣除运营费用。

The principal operating expense is the Nebraska Intangibles Tax which amounts to .4% of market value on practically all securities. Last year represented the first time that this tax had been effectively enforced and, of course penalized our results to the extent of .4%.

主要的运营费用是内布拉斯加州无形资产税，几乎按所有证券市值的0.4%征收。去年是首次有效执行该税，自然使我们的业绩减少了0.4%。

The present portfolio:

当前投资组合：

Last year, I mentioned a new commitment which involved about 25% of assets of the various partnerships. Presently this investment is about 35% of assets. This is an unusually large percentage, but has been made for strong reasons. In effect, this company is partially an investment trust owing some thirty or forty other securities of high quality. Our investment was made and is carried at a substantial discount from asset value based on market value of their securities and a conservative appraisal of the operating business.

去年，我提到了一项约占各合伙基金资产25%的新投资。目前，这项投资已经占到资产的约35%。这个比例异常高，但这是有充分理由的。实际上，这家公司部分是一家投资信托，持有约三十到四十只其他高质量证券。我们是以其资产价值大幅折扣的价格进行投资并持有，该资产价值基于其证券市值和对运营业务的保守评估。

We are the company’s largest stockholder by a considerable margin, and the two other large holders agree with our ideas. The probability is extremely high that the performance of this investment will be superior to that of the general market until its disposition, and I am hopeful that this will take place this year.

我们是该公司遥遥领先的最大股东，另两大股东也认同我们的想法。在当前投资处置之前，这项投资的表现极大概率会优于大市，我希望能在今年实现。

The remaining 65% of the portfolio is in securities which I consider undervalued and work-out operations. To the extent possible, I continue to attempt to invest in situations at least partially insulated from the behavior of the general market.

投资组合中剩余的65%是我认为被低估的证券以及套利类操作。我继续尽可能将资金投入到至少能部分隔离大盘波动的机会中。

This policy should lead to superior results in bear markets and average performance in bull markets. The first prediction may be subject to test this year since, at this writing, the Dow-Jones Industrials have retraced over half of their 1959 advance.

这一策略应能在熊市中带来超越平均的业绩，而在牛市中取得一般表现。第一个预测今年可能面临考验，因为截至写信时，道琼斯工业平均指数已经回吐了其1959年涨幅的一半以上。

Should you have any questions or if I have not been clear in any respect, I would be very happy to hear from you.

如有任何疑问，或我在任何方面表述不清，我很乐意收到您的来信。

Warren E. Buffett
2-20-60

沃伦 E. 巴菲特
1960年2月20日