1961年7月致合伙人信
巴菲特在信中回顾1961年上半年表现,讨论合伙合并及新分配条款。
In the past, partners have commented that a once-a-year letter was “a long time between drinks,” and that a semi-annual letter would be a good idea. It really shouldn’t be too difficult to find something to say twice a year; at least it isn’t this year. Hence, this letter which will be continued in future years.
过去,合伙人们曾评论说,一年一封信“间隔太长,难解投资之渴”,而半年一封信是个好主意。一年凑出两次要说的话应该不算太难;至少今年不难。因此,我写了这封信,今后也会继续如此。
During the first half of 1961, the overall gain of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average was about 13%, including dividends. Although this is the type of period when we should have the most difficulty in exceeding this standard, all partnerships that operated throughout the six months did moderately better than the Average. Partnerships formed during 1961 either equaled or exceeded results of the Average from the time of formation, depending primarily on how long they were in operation.
1961年上半年,包括股息在内,道琼斯工业平均指数整体上涨约13%。虽然在这种市场阶段我们理应最难超越这一基准,但整个半年期间运营的所有合伙账户的表现都略好于指数。1961年内新成立的合伙账户,自成立时起,业绩或持平或超越了指数,主要取决于运营时间长短。
Let me, however, emphasize two points. First, one year is far too short a period to form any kind of an opinion as to investment performance, and measurements based upon six months become even more unreliable. One factor that has caused some reluctance on my part to write semi-annual letters is the fear that partners may begin to think in terms of short-term performance which can be most misleading. My own thinking is much more geared to five year performance, preferably with tests of relative results in both strong and weak markets.
不过,我要强调两点。第一,一年时间太短,绝不足以对投资表现形成任何判断,基于六个月的衡量就更不可靠。我之所以有点不愿意写半年度信函,其中一个原因是担心合伙人可能开始从短期业绩角度思考,而这极具误导性。我自己的思考更多地聚焦于五年期的业绩,最好能检验在强势市场和弱势市场中的相对表现。
The second point I want everyone to understand is that if we continue in a market which advances at the pace of the first half of 1961, not only do I doubt that we will continue to exceed the results of the DJIA, but it is very likely that our performance will fall behind the Average.
我希望大家明白的第二点是,如果市场继续保持1961年上半年的上涨速度,我不仅怀疑我们能否继续超越道指,而且我们的表现很可能会落后于指数。
Our holdings, which I always believe to be on the conservative side compared to general portfolios, tend to grow more conservative as the general market level rises. At all times, I attempt to have a portion of our portfolio in securities at least partially insulated from the behavior of the market, and this portion should increase as the market rises. However appetizing results for even the amateur cook (and perhaps particularly the amateur), we find that more of our portfolio is not on the stove.
我一直认为,与普通投资组合相比,我们的持股偏保守。随着整体市场水平上升,持仓也会变得更加保守。在任何时候,我都试图让组合中有一部分证券至少部分隔绝于市场行为的影响,而这部分应该随着市场上涨而增加。即使对于业余厨师(或许尤其是业余厨师)来说,看起来很诱人的结果,我们也会发现,组合中待在炉灶上的部分反而更少。
We have also begun open market acquisition of a potentially major commitment which I, of course, hope does nothing marketwise for at least a year. Such a commitment may be a deterrent to short range performance, but it gives strong promise of superior results over a several year period combined with substantial defensive characteristics.
我们也开始在公开市场上买入一项可能成为重大持仓的投资,我当然希望这只证券在市场上至少一年内毫无表现。这种持仓可能拖累短期业绩,但它极有希望在数年内带来卓越的回报,同时具备显著的防御特性。
Progress has been made toward combining all partners at yearend. I have talked with all partners joining during this past year or so about this goal, and have also gone over the plans with representative partners of all earlier partnerships.
推动所有合伙人在年底合并一事已取得进展。我已与过去一年左右加入的所有合伙人谈过这个目标,也和所有早期合伙账户的代表合伙人讨论了相关计划。
Some of the provisions will be:
部分条款如下:
(A) A merger of all partnerships, based on market value at yearend, with provisions for proper allocation among partners of future tax liability due to unrealized gains at yearend. The merger itself will be tax-free, and will result in no acceleration of realization of profits;
(A) 所有合伙账户按年底市值进行合并,并就年底未实现收益导致的未来税务责任在合伙人之间做出恰当分配。合并本身将免税,不会导致利润的提前实现;
(B) A division of profits between the limited partners and general partner, with the first 6% per year to partners based upon beginning capital at market, and any excess divided one-fourth to the general partner and three-fourths to all partners proportional to their capital. Any deficiencies in earnings below the 6% would be carried forward against future earnings, but would not be carried back. Presently, there are three profit arrangements which have been optional to incoming partners:
(B) 有限合伙人与普通合伙人之间的利润分配:首先以年初按市值计算的资本为基础,向合伙人支付每年6%的回报,超出部分1/4分配给普通合伙人,3/4按资本比例分配给所有合伙人。若盈利低于6%,不足部分结转至未来盈利中弥补,不会向前追溯。目前,新加入合伙人可选的利润分配方案有三种:
| (x) | Interest Provision | Excess to Gen. Partner | Excess to Ltd. Partners |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | 6% | 1/3 | 2/3 |
| (2) | 4% | 1/4 | 3/4 |
| (3) | None | 1/6 | 5/6 |
| (x) | 利息条款 | 普通合伙人超额分成 | 有限合伙人超额分成 |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | 6% | 1/3 | 2/3 |
| (2) | 4% | 1/4 | 3/4 |
| (3) | 无 | 1/6 | 5/6 |
In the event of profits, the new division will obviously have to be better for limited partners than the first two arrangements. Regarding the third, the new arrangement will be superior up to 18% per year; but above this rate the limited partners would do better under the present agreement. About 80% of total partnership assets have selected the first two arrangements, and I am hopeful, should we average better than 18% yearly, partners presently under the third arrangement will not feel short-changed under the new agreement;
在盈利情况下,新方案显然会比前两种安排对有限合伙人更有利。对于第三种方案,新方案在年收益不超过18%时更优;但超过此水平,有限合伙人在当前协议下收益更高。约80%的合伙资产选择了前两种方案。我希望,即便我们年化收益平均超过18%,目前采用第三种方案的合伙人也不会觉得新协议亏待了他们;
(C) In the event of losses, there will be no carry back against amounts previously credited to me as general partner. Although there will be a carry-forward against future excess earnings. However, my wife and I will have the largest single investment in the new partnership, probably about one-sixth of total partnership assets, and thereby a greater dollar stake in losses than any other partner of family group, I am inserting a provision in the partnership agreement which will prohibit the purchase by me or my family of any marketable securities. In other words, the new partnership will represent my entire investment operation in marketable securities, so that my results will have to be directly proportional to yours, subject to the advantage I obtain if we do better than 6%;
(C) 发生亏损时,不会向前追溯,以弥补之前记入我作为普通合伙人名下的金额。但会向后结转,从未来超额收益中弥补。然而,我和我妻子将在新合伙企业中持有最大的单一投资份额,大约占总资产的六分之一,因此在亏损中的绝对金额风险高于任何其他合伙人或家庭团体。我将在合伙协议中增加一个条款,禁止我或我的家人购买任何可流通证券。换言之,新合伙企业将是我在可流通证券投资上的全部操作,因此我的投资业绩必须与你们的直接成正比,只不过若我们的回报超过6%,我会获得额外收益;
(D) A provision for monthly payments at the rate of 6% yearly, based on beginning of the year capital valued at market. Partners not wishing to withdraw money currently can have this credited back to them automatically as an advance payment, drawing 6%, to purchase an additional equity interest in the partnership at yearend. This will solve one stumbling block that has heretofore existed in the path of consolidation, since many partners desire regular withdrawals and others wish to plow everything back;
(D) 一项按月付款条款,年利率6%,基于年初按市值计算的资本。不希望当前提款的合伙人,可将这部分款项自动记入账户,作为预付款并计息6%,以便年底购买额外的合伙权益。这将解决合并路上的一个障碍,因为许多合伙人希望定期提款,而另一些人则希望将所有资金再投入;
(E) The right to borrow during the year, up to 20% of the value of your partnership interest, at 6%, such loans to be liquidated at yearend or earlier. This will add a degree of liquidity to an investment which can now only be disposed of at yearend. It is not intended that anything but relatively permanent funds be invested in the partnership, and we have no desire to turn it into a bank. Rather, I expect this to be a relatively unused provision, which is available when something unexpected turns up and a wait until yearend to liquidate part of all of a partner’s interest would cause hardship;
(E) 年内有权借款,最高可达合伙权益价值的20%,利率6%,该项贷款须在年底或更早结清。这将为原本只能年底处置的投资增加一定流动性。合伙基金的投资只用于相对长期的资金,我们无意将其变为银行。相反,我预计这项条款会较少使用,只在发生意外情况,且等到年底才能变现部分或全部合伙权益会带来困难时,才提供帮助;
(F) An arrangement whereby any relatively small tax adjustment, made in later years on the partnership’s return will be assessed directly to me. This way, we will not be faced with the problem of asking eighty people, or more, to amend their earlier return over some small matter. As it stands now, a small change, such as a decision that a dividend received by the partnership has 63% a return of capital instead of 68%, could cause a multitude of paper work. To prevent this, any change amounting to less than $1,000 of tax will be charged directly to me.
(F) 一项安排规定,后续年度对合伙企业申报的较小税务调整将直接由我承担。这样,我们就不必因为一点小问题而要求八十多人甚至更多人去修改他们之前的申报。按照目前的规定,一个小变动,比如认定合伙所获股息中有63%是资本返还,而非68%,就可能导致大量的文书工作。为了避免这种情况,任何导致少于1,000美元税务的变动,都将由我个人直接负责。
We have submitted the proposed agreement to Washington for a ruling that the merger would be tax-free, and that the partnership would be treated as a partnership under the tax laws. While all of this is a lot of work, it will make things enormously easier in the future. You might save this letter as a reference to read in conjunction with the agreement which you will receive later in the year.
我们已将拟议的协议提交华盛顿,以申请裁定合并免税,且合伙企业将根据税法被视为合伙企业。虽然所有这些工作量很大,但会让未来的事情变得无比容易。各位不妨保留这封信,作为之后阅读年末收到的协议时的参考。
The minimum investment for new partners is currently $25,000, but, of course, this does not apply to present partners. Our method of operation will enable the partners to add or withdraw amounts of any size (in round $100) at yearend. Estimated total assets of the partnership will be in the neighborhood of $4 million, which enables us to consider investments such as the one mentioned earlier in this letter, which we would have had to pass several years ago.
新合伙人目前的最低投资额为25,000美元,但这项规定当然不适用于现有合伙人。我们的运营方式允许合伙人在年底追加或提取任意金额(以百美元为整数单位)。合伙企业资产总额估计将在400万美元左右,这使我们能够考虑这封信前面提到的那种投资机会,而在几年前我们只能略过。
This has turned out to be more of a production than my annual letter. If you have any questions, particularly regarding anything that isn’t clear in my discussion of the new partnership agreement, be sure to let me know. If there are a large number of questions, I will write a supplemental letter to all partners giving the questions that arise and the answers to them.
这封信比我写年度信函更加费劲。如果各位有任何疑问,尤其是对新合伙协议讨论的任何不清楚之处,请务必告知我。如果问题较多,我会给所有合伙人写一封补充信,列出问题并做出解答。
Warren E. Buffett
July 22, 1961
沃伦·E·巴菲特
1961年7月22日